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@scots: I must say that I do not have statistics. My submissions have been based on reports from contacts around the country & personal interactions. Again, my projections are not meant to suggest an immediate uptake of 4g, or even 3g for that matter. I agree with you again on how there can be a progressive move towards the upgrade in the manner you raised.
The experts' projections of GSM initial uptake fell short: the result was a tremendous subscriber explosion. This was inspite of initial high costs of acquisition. Again, GSM networks here smiled to the bank with revenues from voice calls, though the tarriffs were adjudged to be the highest on the planet. We have consistently done the impossible, partly bcos we had been starved of these services for too long, & partly due to the Nigerian spirit of resilience & entrepreneurship.
Granted that a majority of Nigerians do not earn enough to take up mobile data for pleasure, but it has created opportunities for wealth creation & greater productivity.
[ This Message was edited by: AYA on 2004-12-13 01:24 ]
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Posted: 2004-12-13 02:18:00
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Here in India, we are slowly moving from 2.5g to 3g. I don't think 4g is gonna hit our shores that soon. What I've noticed is that, India has one of the worlds cheapest mobile and data tariff structures. Not a single player here is actually making any money but they all have a positive outlook about their future here. I am dead sure about the fact that whenever, 3g is launched here, if they turn out to be expensive, it won't work here.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 03:24:21
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I think 3g is great. I haven't noticed any bugs for it here in sweden. During the olympics, the biggest operator here gave us 3gers the possibility to watch the olympics on the cell for free! I really like to see that sites load much much faster. The only problem is the phone battery, but that get fixed soon, as it har been done with the v800.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 03:42:04
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@AYA
GSM is a very powerful standard though, with most of the world using it, one has to wonder whether or not the Nigerian 'mobile explosion' would have been quite as great as you say, if Nigeria had gone down the CDMA path.
The problem in adopting new technologies with any degre eof success, is that there has to be some need for them. Europe is a more data intensive society than Nigeria, hence 3G is being taken up here. I cna't imagine too many Nigerians would be interested in buying 3G handsets, which don't offer them anything they really need. Having said that, as the technology become smore widespread and cheaper to implement, we will probably see 3G expanding . This will be boosted by the businness opportunitues you mentioned, greater m-commerce opportunities in developing countries will mean an advancement of services.
@wizzkid
The difference with India is that there are so many potential customers that prics can be low.
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"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC
[ This Message was edited by: scotsboyuk on 2004-12-13 17:05 ]
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Posted: 2004-12-13 03:49:41
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scots:
I guess not many potential users but it depends on the economic infrastructure of the country, previously we use to have very high tariff's but then slowly each and every operator has started giving cheap (less) tariff's for cell phone usage. I whish if we could have only one service provider like voda or orange.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 04:22:56
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Vineet, we already have Orange here! Don't you know?!
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Posted: 2004-12-13 04:25:01
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Why do I think 3G is dead? Even if operators have spent so much on licensing and all... because it's too soon.
Prior to 3G... the next big thing was SUPPOSED to be satellite phones. Iridium, Globalstar, Aces... all had that promise. One world... One number... One email... etc..etc.. Great idea... no need to roam since we were all under one network. Coverage area was literally GLOBAL... even in the middle of the sea! But where are they now? Iridium is reduced to a small specialized firm catering to industrial clients... Globalstar is doing the same. Aces has a few marine clients. But not the whole world as they planned.
Analog networks died a natural death. During the AMPS days, D-AMPS and CDMA were already there as well... those died quickly and silently as well... living shorter lives than the more primitive AMPS and ETACS.
What I noticed was technical superiority never won over what the consumers ended up NEEDING. CDMA had far more advantages over GSM when they both came out... better security, clearer calls, more efficient frequency handling... but where is CDMA now? One of our providers here built an entire CDMA network... ahead of the GSM guys... not a single subscriber singed up for CDMA service.
You can't force people to migrate. You can shut down your older network... but then someone...somewhere may buy out your older network and revive it (it has happened here... AMPS networks are still alive, and are offered at dirt cheap rates)
We've hit a saturation point for services. MMS never replaced SMS. I'm guessing for every MMS sent in the world, about 100 SMSes are sent. Why not kill SMS all together and just force everyone to use MMS?
Same goes for 3G... too much...too soon. By the time they get around to fixing all the bugs and fixing the licenses... 4G will be developed... why? Cuz some company out there is trying to be the next 3G already. UMTS, CDMA2000, WCDMA... all started out that way... to be the next GSM.
How many videophone standards have we seen? Tons... none of them clicked... sure a few businesses here and there... a few home owners... but again... everyone doesn't have a videophone at home.
Unless 2 and 2.5G licenses will be cancelled to force end user migration to 3G... 3G will be dead in the water. Companies may have spent a ton on 3G... but they're making a lot more with their older 2.5G networks. Why would you kill your cash cow? BMW doesn't make its money from the 7-series... they make it from the 3-series. Same goes for Nokia... they don't make money from their 9500/9700 series.
Right now 3G is just bragging rights for a telco. Total cost of end-user migration will determine whether it will survive or not.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 04:48:24
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@jplacson, here in India, CDMA has been a roaring success. And 3g might be dead in the west, but in the east- where 3g is yet to make significant inroads, it is a much awaited thing. I am definitely sure India and China would graciously accept 3g services only if offered at cheap rates. If not so, 3g would die a slow death.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 05:02:46
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Whiz I was talking Orange as a whole (one common network)
By the way for those who dont know voda has already taken a step forward to launch its operations in India. It has given a petition for a 50% stake in BPL communications ltd. so lets hope for the best
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Posted: 2004-12-13 05:21:47
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Quote:
On 2004-12-13 03:49:41, scotsboyuk wrote:
The difference with India is that there are so many potential customers that prics can be low.
With over 120million people, and economic power of the majority similar to what obtains in India, you think India "qualifies" and Nigeria does not? Sounds strange.
One interesting point is, 3g is not even working so well at the moment for those of you who have taken it up. Why would you want to foist on us whatz not working?
I read reports & comments of 3g subscribers from around the world. Its more negative than positive, even in your country. Its hard to see why anyone came up with something so different that it needs completely new infrastructure to run. 3g is a waste, IMO.
I suspect that 3g was never about the consumer. It probably was someone's idea to ride the "next wave".
Hopefully, network developers have learnt their lessons with this costly mistake called 3g.
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Posted: 2004-12-13 05:39:00
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