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Interesting thread. In my view (as a P800 user) "classics" PDA are big monsters. Ok, they have great apps now but remember when pocketPC was introduced, maybe Symbian will reach pocketPC soon as it reached Palm OS in app terms.
Anyway, Im a mobile user of "basic" information as text, database, pictures, contacts, email, internet, phone, "file store", etc. I would love a little GIS apps and better PDF compatibility but at this moment all is fine for me.
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Posted: 2004-09-27 10:50:56
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@mib1800
I can see where you are coming from, but I think that there is scope for more than one smartphone market; smartphones for the masses with more emphasis placed upon entertainment, gaming, music, etc and smartphones for high-end/business users who require advanced features with the possibility of such devices replacing PDAs.
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Posted: 2004-09-27 20:25:16
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@scotsboyuk:
that what i'm getting at. 2 categories of smartphones. one for the enterprise/business-centric segment (P900/XDA) and one for the general masses (series 60).
i believe the current growth is driven by the latter. i do agree that a significant number in the general category may not fully utilise the smartphone capability. nonetheless, these buyers are fueling a trend which will continue.
i tend to agree with many analysts who believe in this divergence (i.e. business/general). imo, most likely Microsoft would hv upperhand in the business/enterprise segments. symbian is still nowhere near the integrated capability of PPC.
[ This Message was edited by: mib1800 on 2004-09-28 03:08 ]
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Posted: 2004-09-28 04:07:09
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@mib1800
The problem I have with the idea of 'smartphones for the masses' is that most people inherently dislike anything too complex. I think we shall see mobiles expand their features, but actual user customisation of a mobile will be as limited as it is today in terms of adding new software. Many customers might very well appreciate it if their mobile could be used as a remote control for their television or if it would allow them to view Word documents, but what they will not appreciate is having to buy or download (or both) the software to do these things and then install it. Most customers appreciate simplicity above all else.
Mobiles will continue to grow smarter, but I think we are looking at mobiles with pre-defined features, at least in the short term.
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Posted: 2004-09-28 05:18:41
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Hmmm yeah, if they continue ploughing money into developing new and fantastical features, they could be left with egg on their faces when it doesnt sell, as people simply want a basic mobile phone. Not to say r&d isnt important
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Posted: 2004-09-28 10:42:17
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@methylated_spirit
that's your guess that people just want basic phone feature. in esato i think many would disagree with your statement.
include also the 20+ million people who are buying smartphones and 200 million who will be buying a imaging/multimedia phone.
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Posted: 2004-09-28 11:24:57
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@mib1800
I think methylated_spirit's point, please correct me if I am wrong, was similar to my own point; most customers simply do not want a 'complicated' mobile phone. Cameras, videos, music, etc may be all very well, and most people rather like these sort of features, but unique smartphone capabilities are something most users are not interested in. There are more than a billion GSM users around the world, most of whom use 'basic' handsets ie. non-smartphones.
_________________
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC
[ This Message was edited by: scotsboyuk on 2004-09-28 23:52 ]
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Posted: 2004-09-29 00:51:38
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@scotsboyuk.
i don't agree with your view that smartphone is "complicated" whereas other phones are not.
look at the K700 and S700. they are as complicated to operate as any smartphone. the only different is a smartphone can install additional functionalities. if a "normal" person can operate a K700/S700, they would hv no problems with a smartphone.
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Posted: 2004-09-29 03:30:50
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@mib1800
I disagree; you are failing to take into consideration avery important point, that most customers are inherently interested in mobiles that will do as much as possible for the absolute minimum of fuss and effort.
The K700 and S700 are not smartphones, they may be advanced mobiles, but they do not have the functionality of smartphones. The average man in the street has probably never searched the internet for a filemanager application for a smartphone, nor is it likely that he has installed such a piece of software on a smartphone. I do agree that smartphone sales will increase and that more people will use them, but if we are being realistic we must realise that they are neve rgoing to be something taken up by the majority of mobile phones users.
Computers are easier than ever to use and yet there are vast swathes of humanity that will not go near one unless they absolutely have to, despite the fact that computers are more important than ever. I believe this situation to be true of smartphones too, the features that most people would like to see included on their mobile phones do not extend to smartphone functionality, especially when we take a more long term view.
The average mobile phone user would no doubt like to see a music player, a video player, radio, games, etc on his mobile in addition to the basic abilities of a mobile. What the average user does not want is a device that comes with a novel for an instruction book. I really do believe that the smartphone market will split along two lines; a high-end business market with advanced features and greater functionality and user customisation potential and a 'dumbed down' smartphone market aimed at providing advanced features to the avergae customer in a more simplistic way, sacraficing the customisation poential in the process.
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Posted: 2004-09-29 05:58:08
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@scotsbyuk:
I agree with you
60% on your assessment. i.e. 60% of people who buy a phone fit your scenario. the other 40% can be easily "converted" if the smartphone trend is continues. these 40% is huge lot of people.
I'm not too sure about se P900, but for series 60, it already comes with a whole lot of basic functions such as file/apps/gallery manager built into the OS.
wrt to getting new apps into the phone, it is not difficult at the moment. you can use ota for installation. In the future, it may be as easy as downloading a ringtone.
but the greatest potential is when the operators jump on the bandwagon to add on their apps to provide new services (e.g. 3G type). at the moment, the operators cannot do much customisation with non-smartphone.
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Posted: 2004-09-29 07:24:17
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