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SHOCKING AND GOOD NEWS!!!

As it turns out the hard fought undecided votes for President of the US are not being so easily won by the Democrats - Great news for Bush!

Amazingly - a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll gave President Bush a 1% increase after the Democrat Party Convention!!! Just wow. I love it.

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. (Related item: Poll results)

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey to Sunday to get a fuller picture of what's happening.

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democratic ticket a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll.

Among registered voters in the USA TODAY poll, Kerry and Bush each had 47%. Bush was up 4 points, Kerry unchanged from the pre-convention survey.

Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll.

"In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place," said Stephanie Cutter, Kerry's communications director. "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America."

But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, the three challengers who have unseated presidents held clear leads after their conventions.

Democratic leaders have expressed delight about the convention, which showed a united party and emphasized national security. Those surveyed gave the convention and its candidate high marks:

Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.

Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%.

Kerry's military service is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says it would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.
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I know this will come as a major disappointment to those who wish to see Bush voted out of office - but hey - the numbers don't lie. I guess the immediate reaction to Kerry after the convention wasn't wasn't one granted to a hero who won the purple heart 3 times. Kerry seems to remain an unknown while people know Bush - even if they don't like him.



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Posted: 2004-08-02 15:39:33
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First Poll Shows Hike for Kerry After Convention

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Democratic presidential ticket gained a solid bounce in a new poll following last week's convention but the new nominee, Sen. John Kerry, said on Sunday he wasn't paying attention.
Kerry, appearing on "Fox News Sunday" with his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, said he remembered far too well the polls last year that showed his presidential bid staggering.

"Polls are not what's important. What's important is what we're going to do for America," Kerry said.

"I don't read polls. I really don't. They are going to go up and down. They're going to change," he added.

The Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry, who has been running in a virtual dead heat with Republican President Bush, gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.

In the poll conducted on Thursday and on Friday, Kerry received 49 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent and 3 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. In early July, Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent.

Without Nader in the race, Kerry led Bush in the new poll by 51 percent to 45 percent. The poll of about 1,000 registered voters had a 3 percent margin of error.

Conventions are often the first time the general public tunes into a presidential race, and polls have shown many Americans are still unfamiliar with Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator, decorated Vietnam War veteran and former prosecutor.

Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as "bounce," which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight. Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely.

Bush likely will benefit similarly when Republicans gather for their nominating convention in New York at the end of August.



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Posted: 2004-08-02 19:56:32
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Okaaaaay...... Now I'm confused!

Goes to show that you can twist facts or polls to your own end methinks, both Bush and Kerry camps are claiming victory - someone has to be wrong! I guess it depends on who does the poll, who they ask, how many people are asked, etc...

Suffice to say it's probably going to be a close one right to the end!
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Posted: 2004-08-02 20:07:21
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2 words: Statistical Manipulation, as you said, choosing the right people, the right numbers, etc etc so that they show the information in the way you want it seen.

It happens all the time though, whenever on the news do you hear them say " The MODE/MEAN/MEDIAN number of people ...", it will always be "on AVERAGE (number) people....
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Posted: 2004-08-02 21:49:50
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Confused Sammy_Boy?

Well, polls do fluctuate over time. But there are some key differences between the polls cited here:

The Newsweek poll cited by Axxxr was taken on Thursday and Friday - just after the convention closed. Another key fact is they sampled "registered voters".

The CNN poll I cited was taken during Friday and Saturday allowing another day for us to digest the convention coverage - USA Today said they did this to get a "fuller picture". Also - the sample was of "likely voters". In other words, they picked people who were not only registered to vote but had a pattern of voting and were considered likely to vote this time.

You'll also take note that in the article I reference I have a link to the actual study and the questions asked with a breakdown of each response by demographic. Axxxr only has an article - who knows what they asked and how the numbers play out???

And even if there was a 4% "bounce" (Increase due to the convention) for Kerry - it is such a small and short lived increase as to be extremely disappointing. But don't expect to hear disappointment from the Democrats. They'll say things like, "We don't pay attention to polls".

What Fun!
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Posted: 2004-08-02 21:57:45
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Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Monday August 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Today is the first Tracking Poll data based entirely upon interviews conducted after John Kerry's speech at the Democratic National Convention. The results reflect a one-point improvement for the Kerry/Edwards ticket. That's well within the survey margin of error and also reflects a two-point net decline from the poll results immediately prior to Kerry's speech.

One week ago today, the last Tracking Poll before the convention began showed Kerry and Bush tied at 46% each. Just before his speech, Kerry was leading 48% to 45%.

When comparing the convention "bounce" measured by various polling organizations, the timing of the polls must be taken into account. At Rasmussen Reports, we track the race daily while other organizations do so more sporadically.

If we compare the same polling nights as Gallup's pre-and post convention polls, Rasmussen Reports data shows that Kerry had a negative bounce of one-point during that time frame. Our data also shows a slight negative bounce over the time frame measured by Newsweek

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 46 47
Aug 1 45 49
July 31 46 47
July 30 45 48
July 29 45 48
July 28 45 48
July 27 46 47
July 26 46 46
July 25 46 47
July 24 45 47
July 23 45 48
July 22 45 48
July 21 47 46
July 20 47 45
July 19 47 45
July 18 46 46
July 17 46 47
July 16 46 48


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Posted: 2004-08-03 17:34:05
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This is who i really think deserves to be president!


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Posted: 2004-08-03 19:55:03
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He'd certainly do a better job that the current incumbant!

Really must get to see that film too, still haven't done it.
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Posted: 2004-08-03 20:06:32
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The current incumbant should be cleaning the whitehouse toilets.

Farenheight 9/11 should be availble pretty soon on dvd...moore was saying quote: "I want to release the movie on dvd before the nov elections so that every household gets to see it"
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Posted: 2004-08-03 20:11:48
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Will keep an eye open for it if I dont' get to see it at the flicks. Keep meaning to see 'Bowling for Columbine' too, to make my own mind up about Moore.

Mind you, most reviews of '9/11' I've seen are excellent!
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Posted: 2004-08-03 20:38:22
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