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Not since Alexander Graham Bell has so much attention been lavished on a phone. But the hype surrounding Apple Inc's media-playing iPhone could be a prelude to disappointment if it does not capture a wide market, technology veterans say.

As the press feeds the iPhone frenzy ahead of its US launch on Friday, experts say the wireless device could easily top a long list of digital duds, all of them once touted as "The Next Big Thing."

"God himself could not design a device that could live up to all the hype that the iPhone has gotten," said David Platt, a computer science professor at Harvard University.

Since its existence was announced in January, more than 1 million people have told exclusive carrier AT&T that they are interested in a phone that costs as much as $600. In that time, Apple shares have risen 35 per cent.

Comedian Conan O'Brien has spoofed it as the answer to all human needs, and rumor has it multimedia mogul Oprah Winfrey wants one. Blogs chronicle leaks about the phone like children plotting Santa's path from the North Pole.

"This is the most expected phone since Alexander Graham Bell's. Expectations are just off the charts," Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg said. "All anyone wants to talk about these days -- not just technology people, but mainstream consumers -- is the iPhone."

Apple is likely to sell a lot of phones on Friday, particularly as die-hard gadget fans angle for bragging rights to be among the first iPhone owners, he said. But the real test for Apple is whether it appeals to a mass market of consumers, not unlike the company's best-selling iPod music player.

"The ultimate success is how quickly Apple builds this into a family -- how quickly prices come down and models become more affordable," Gartenberg said. "It is what happens beyond the first 90 days that is really important."

Few people have actually seen an iPhone, whose main differentiating feature is a smooth glass touch screen that replaces number keys.

The device can surf the Internet, play music and video like an iPod, and perform other digital duties -- as well as make phone calls. Chief Executive Steve Jobs hopes Apple will ship 10 million in its first year

To be sure, even the most pedestrian mobile phone can sell hundreds of thousands of units, in a phone market where some 1 billion units are sold each year around the globe.

The iPhone would be a replacement to products many people already have, forcing some users to switch mobile carriers and trade in devices with a full keyboard like the BlackBerry.

Unlike a new video-game console, high-definition DVD or flat-screen TV, the iPhone is relatively old technology with an attractive new package.

Platt, author of "Why Software Sucks...And What You Can Do About It," says the iPhone will likely miss the mark despite its cool look in TV commercials, because it was designed more to please engineers than a regular consumer.

"It is really easy to fall in love with a Playboy (magazine) centerfold when you are just looking at it," he said of the iPhone's flash.

"You can imagine iPhone will be the miracle box that solves all problems ... but when you actually have your hands on it and realize it takes five or six button presses to get something, then you start to get annoyed," he said.

Apple has not been immune to flops. After delivering the "Apple II" in 1977 -- its first popular microcomputer -- Steve Jobs' next project was "Lisa," a business computer labeled by many as late-arriving and expensive.

A $6,000, 20-pound Mac "Portable" met with a similar fate in 1989, followed by the Newton handheld device in 1993 and in 2000, the G4 Cube that critics said was a triumph of design over practicality.

iPhone isn't even Apple's first crack at a phone -- the ROKR, its collaboration in 2005 with Motorola, was critically panned and yielded disappointing sales.

More recently, handheld computer maker Palm Inc. stirred up talk about a genre-changing new device, only to unveil "Foleo" -- a mini-computer -- to a collective ho-hum from investors and gadget-watching blogs.

Still on the flop fence is Microsoft's Zune. Introduced last November as a potential iPod-killer, the digital music player is expected by the end of this month to sell a million total units, a fraction of iPod's business.

"What is a failure is often in the eye of the beholder," said Ross Rubin, an analyst at research firm NPD Group. "Even though the Zune is often considered a failure, Microsoft says it is happy with where the product is in the marketplace."
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:11:02
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I dont think iPhone would be a hit...it lacks many specs...although mac diehards would buy it
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:15:56
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ya thats what m thinkin...its all the marketing policies of apple...they r makin a hype of it..as a result people r psycologically gettin involved in it...they just want this phone...n ready 2 pay anything...
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:20:26
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very pessimistic of you. i dont even for a second doubt the success of iPHONE. And i dont think specs will have anything to do with it either.
BTW, what specs are YOU talking about? 5MP camera is un-needed. 3G isnt also a must, dont forget, a year and a half ago SE devices didnt have 3G aswell.
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:22:50
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I also think that this phone will be a disappointment. its first phone by apple.so it can not be that much good.it took years and years to nokia , motorola and sonyericsson to come to the place where they stand right now

This message was posted from a W810i
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:25:53
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FYI the Z1010 was available Q104

source

_________________
The UK's Best Selling Phones
Esato around the World

P990i + BT30Q

[ This Message was edited by: goldenface on 2007-06-26 08:38 ]
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:31:54
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its not my personal thoughts..i hv written all after reading n article on i phone in a popular techincal magazine..i agree whole thing is not right but sm points r indeed true...600$ for a phone??? no keyboard..it will be very hectic 2 type msg using stylus in a qwert types style...
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:32:45
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@goldenface. One and a half years is a long long time in mobile tech world. So we are not ready to move one and half year back to own an apple phone or ??

This message was posted from a W810i
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:37:45
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@umerhayat

Sorry, I was under the impresssion a 3G version would be available for European customers.

One and a half years ago, the market was very different. 3G was appearing on more devices but the actual availability of media was very low compared to today.

What with, music downloads everywhere, media heavy websites, Streaming Radio and Video, downloadable video clips, email, Video and Picture blogging, a phone would need at least 3G in order to take advantage of all that comfortably. but hey I just thought the iPHone would have a 3G version anyway.


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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:43:58
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Well with that logic QVGA is a camera in a phone "needed" at all...no. I live in America where all I hear is iPhone this iPhone that, but everyone that talks about the phone doesn't even need the device for all its purposes and more for show. If you would look at AT&T's lineup you would see the HTC TyTn which is far greater in specs than the iPhone and the TyTn is cheaper. I don't doubt the iPhone will have success but lets face it...is the iPhone innovating?

The iPhone is like the iPod where it is trying to attract the younger audience with all its advertisements trying to sucker idiots who have no clue what specs are...if someone wanted a powerhouse smart phone they would buy a n95 for around the same price

Nokia n95 > iPhone
Archos 604 > iPod Video

[ This Message was edited by: rabmozzer on 2007-06-26 08:53 ]
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Posted: 2007-06-26 09:52:28
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